UFC 324: Pimblett vs Gaethje - Expert Predictions and Analysis (2026)

Get ready for a fight that could shake the MMA world to its core! Paddy Pimblett vs. Justin Gaethje at UFC 324 is more than just a title bout—it’s a battle of generations, styles, and legacies. On Saturday in Las Vegas, Pimblett, the 31-year-old rising star from Liverpool, aims to etch his name in history by becoming the city’s first-ever UFC champion and only the fourth Briton to claim an interim or undisputed title. But standing in his way is Justin Gaethje, the 37-year-old lightweight veteran and former interim champion, whose relentless pressure and knockout power have made him a division staple for nearly a decade. Can Pimblett’s momentum and grappling prowess dethrone the seasoned Gaethje, or will the underdog’s fairy tale come to an abrupt end?

This fight has divided the MMA community, and we’ve gathered predictions from some of the biggest names in the sport to fuel the debate. But here’s where it gets controversial... While many are backing Pimblett’s rise, others argue Gaethje’s experience and striking dominance could prove insurmountable. Let’s dive into what the experts are saying—and don’t miss the action starting at 03:00 GMT on Sunday, 25 January, on the BBC Sport website and app.

Rose Namajunas (UFC flyweight and two-time strawweight champion) takes a diplomatic stance: “Whether they win, lose, or draw, I hope they’re happy with their performance and stay safe. It’s a 50/50 fight.” Her neutrality highlights the unpredictability of this matchup. Prediction: Neutral.

Ilia Topuria (UFC lightweight contender) boldly declares: “Pimblett’s going to win, easy. Gaethje doesn’t know how to grapple, and Paddy knows that. Have you ever seen Gaethje submit someone? If you can submit someone, you’d do it.” But is he underestimating Gaethje’s ability to adapt? Prediction: Pimblett.

Sean O’Malley (former UFC bantamweight champion) adds: “Justin’s always exciting, but I feel like it’s Paddy’s time. He’s manifested this moment. It’s going to be a banger, and I’m shocked Gaethje’s a 3-1 underdog. It’s closer than that, but Paddy has the tools to win.” Is O’Malley overlooking Gaethje’s durability? Prediction: Pimblett.

Arnold Allen (UFC featherweight) chimes in: “Paddy’s locked in. The stars have aligned, and he’s in fantastic shape. He’s bringing another belt back to the UK.” But what if Gaethje’s experience disrupts those plans? Prediction: Pimblett.

Luke Riley (UFC featherweight) keeps it concise: “I’ll go Paddy, ground and pound in round three or four, or a knockout.” Is this fight really that straightforward? Prediction: Pimblett.

Modestas Bukauskas (UFC light-heavyweight) emphasizes Pimblett’s growth: “Paddy’s young, hungry, and confident. He’s leveled up every fight, just like I have. He’ll get the job done.” But can youth and hunger overcome Gaethje’s battle-tested resilience? Prediction: Pimblett.

Alexander Volkanovski (UFC featherweight champion) praises Pimblett’s evolution: “Paddy’s passed big tests and stuck to his game plan. He’ll need that against Gaethje, so I’m going with Paddy.” But what if Gaethje forces him into uncharted territory? Prediction: Pimblett.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (UFC heavyweight) remains neutral: “I like both fighters. It’ll be a good fight.” Is this fight truly as evenly matched as he suggests? Prediction: Neutral.

Michael Bisping (first British UFC champion) offers a technical breakdown: “Gaethje leaves openings for underhooks or foot sweeps. Paddy’s creative—I see him winning by submission and becoming interim champion.” But can Pimblett execute against Gaethje’s relentless pressure? Prediction: Pimblett.

And this is the part most people miss... While Pimblett’s rise has been meteoric, Gaethje’s record includes wins over former champions like Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza. Is the MMA world sleeping on Gaethje’s ability to spoil the party? Let’s compare their records: Pimblett (20-3) vs. Gaethje (25-4), with Gaethje holding a higher finish rate. Who do you think takes this one? Is Pimblett’s momentum enough, or will Gaethje’s experience prevail? Sound off in the comments!

UFC 324: Pimblett vs Gaethje - Expert Predictions and Analysis (2026)
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